Say It Ain’t Snow?!


Say It Ain’t Snow?!
  1. Say It Ain’t Snow?!
    firsthandweather.com
    Here is a very brief write-up on the weekend time-frame for the Mid-Atlantic. Many people have inquired about a potential winter storm that some of the numerical guidance is showing. This potential event is several days out, and we all know many changes will emerge within the models on a run-to-run basis. It’s too early […] The post Say It Ain’t Snow?! appeared first on Firsthand…
    Environment

Here is a very brief write-up on the weekend time-frame for the Mid-Atlantic. Many people have inquired about a potential winter storm that some of the numerical guidance is showing. This potential event is several days out, and we all know many changes will emerge within the models on a run-to-run basis. It’s too early for all the specifics on the potential winter storm during this time frame, however, I will say, the Mid-Atlantic bears watching during this time-frame. So, what do we ‘know’ at this point?

It appears a cold airmass will move into Mid-Atlantic by Friday. This cold air will be in place as a potent low-pressure system potentially moves into the area from the west by Sunday. With the low possibly deepening as it moves out of the Tennessee Valley late-Saturday into early-Sunday, it’s likely the system will draw in deep Gulf moisture to aid in heavy precipitation. Some of this precipitation could fall in the cold airmass, which would set the stage for a heavy wet snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. What are the uncertainties?

The evolution, track, and timing of the system are uncertain. The amount of cold air that remains in place, the position of the freezing-line, and the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere are uncertain. There should, however, be enough cold air in place for snow in some areas. It should be noted, with a low this strong, as some of the guidance is showing, it is possible for a warm-nose to develop and cause…

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