The Future of the U.S. (And the World)


The Future of the U.S. (And the World)
  1. The Future of the U.S. (And the World)
    economyandmarkets.com
    Predictability. People. Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics. It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts The post The Future of the U.S. (And the World) appeared first on Economy and…
    Finance

Predictability.

People.

Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.

It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.

I was confused for a second. They looked identical.

So, I laid the one page on top of the other, moved the demographic chart to the right by about 45 years, and they were a match! I immediately knew why, as I had already studied Baby Boom demographics for several years and knew that they peaked in spending between age 45 and 49. I later found that the more exact peak and correlation was 46 years.

Definitely a Eureka! moment. I nearly fell off my chair.

That discovery has since become known as my Spending Wave! It’s allowed me to make eerily accurate long-term forecasts (although, by itself, it’s not a perfect tool – there is no such thing).

It was what enabled me to see that Japan was heading for trouble in the late 1980s when the rest of the world thought they were going to overtake the U.S. It was the reason I knew we’d have a roaring 2000s when everyone else was preaching doom and gloom after the tech wreck. And it’s what tells me that we’re headed toward trouble (and I’m not just talking about the looming market crash)…

The U.S. generational spending wave began to slow down after 2007, right on that 46-year lag. It continues this downward trend into around 2023 or so, with the worst coming by 2020. After that, there’s a longer-term rally into 2036 or 2037 for the first wave of the Millennials born into 1990, followed by a 7-year birth decline and hiatus, and then another rally into around 2056 or so, with the second wave of Millennials born into 2007…

But, here’s the thing: Stocks and the economy likely won’t exceed the highs we’re enjoying today – at least not adjusted for inflation. And there are several reasons for that.

Firstly, while the Millennial generation is larger in numbers, it’s spread thinner over time than the Baby Boom generation is. This gives the latter more economic punch than the former. It’s like the difference between gentle rolling waves and a tsunami.

Secondly, we’re plateauing as a nation. After 2056 our population will likely decline slowly for a long time. And this projection is optimistic. What lies ahead for Germany and Japan is much worse! I’m talking catastrophic and fatal, respectively.

Here’s what our future looks like for the rest of this century… a 93-year forecast. How many economists do you know can even remotely do that?

This chart already includes, on a 47- to 49-year lag, the next Millennial generation into around 2065 (using historical and present births and immigration data). This new generation looks to peak in spending a few years later than the Baby Boomers, which peaked at 46 (the Bob Hope generation peaked at age 44).

The present Spending Wave lag for Generation X, or the downward birth wave following the Baby Boom is 47.

Peak spending for the first wave of Millennials is 48. For the second wave up, it’s 49, and it’s 50 for the longer wave down, which is projected to bottom in births into 2023 due to worsening economic conditions. That creates the next great depression into around 2073, and possibly a bit later.

We update this chart regularly to account for actual births and immigration and for the economic outlook for future trends in both!

Hence, we can project further out than 47 years-plus with reasonable accuracy…

I predicted many years ago that the birth rates would peak near 2007, when the economy was at its best thanks to Baby Boomer spending. People tend to have fewer kids when the economy looks bad or questionable, and vice versa. For example, births and immigration declined sharply into 1933 on a nine-month lag (for pregnancy) after the worst stock downturn in U.S. history.

This trend of slowing births began again in 2008, after the Great Recession began.

I also predicted that immigration would peak and decline after 2007, just like it did into the 1930s dismal economy. And it is! Immigration from Mexico in particular actually reversed for a while.

David Okenquist, my research analyst, and I have done detailed analyses of how births and immigration could decline in the greater downturn we’ll see ahead. I’m beginning to think we may be underestimating the impacts we’ll see in the next several years!

Government agencies tend to project demographic changes in a straight line, using the most optimistic assumptions rather than recognizing fundamental shifts in birth rates, immigration, or urbanization. There is no straight line. Only cycles… peaks and valleys.

Yet the government is forecasting 60 million more births and immigrants between now and 2060 that what we believe will actually arrive. That’s a huge difference! Our population growth will only be about 0.27% a year.

Given lower forecasts for births and immigration into the downturn into 2023 (and rising again after that), and the fact that increasingly urban and affluent households tend to have fewer children because of the expensive involved in raising and educating them, we’ve extended the Spending Wave for the U.S. past 2065 into 2107!

The resultant picture shows, as I said earlier, a double boom from 2023/24 into 2036/37, then a slowdown from 2037 into 2045, then a second boom from 2046 into 2056.

After that, U.S. demographics decline into around 2073, especially after the late 2060s. That should be the next great depression, after India – what I believe will turn out to be the next China – peaks demographically and in its urbanization.

So…

Prepare now for the impacts of the Spending Wave on your financial, investment, and business decisions. Then teach your kids and grandkids this stuff, so they’re not caught…

  1. BidaskClub Downgrades Forward Pharma A/S (FWP) to Buy

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:15 americanbankingnews.com
    Forward Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:FWP) was downgraded by analysts at BidaskClub from a “strong-buy” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report issued on Thursday. Separately, ValuEngine cut shares of Forward Pharma A/S from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Tuesday, September 12th. One analyst has rated the stock…
  2. CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Downgraded by BidaskClub to “Hold”

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:15 americanbankingnews.com
    CrossAmerica Partners LP (NYSE:CAPL) was downgraded by BidaskClub from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report issued on Thursday. Several other brokerages have also recently commented on CAPL. Zacks Investment Research raised CrossAmerica Partners from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $28.00 target price for the company…
  3. Lands’ End, Inc. (LE) Downgraded to “Strong Sell” at BidaskClub

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:15 americanbankingnews.com
    Lands’ End, Inc. (NASDAQ:LE) was downgraded by equities researchers at BidaskClub from a “sell” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a report released on Thursday. LE has been the topic of several other research reports. Zacks Investment Research lowered Lands’ End from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday.…
  4. CA Inc. (CA) Cut to “Strong Sell” at BidaskClub

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:15 americanbankingnews.com
    CA Inc. (NASDAQ:CA) was downgraded by investment analysts at BidaskClub from a “sell” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a report issued on Thursday. Other analysts have also recently issued reports about the company. ValuEngine raised CA from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, September 11th. Jefferies…
  5. Head to Head Analysis: Essendant (ESND) and Intersections (INTX)

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:15 americanbankingnews.com
    Essendant (NASDAQ: ESND) and Intersections (NASDAQ:INTX) are both small-cap consumer discretionary companies, but which is the better investment? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their risk, dividends, analyst recommendations, institutional ownership, valuation, earnings and profitability. Profitability This table compares Essendant and Intersections’ net margins, return on equity and return on…
  6. Economic Report: Another strong gain in leading indicators points to U.S. economy picking up speed

    Vse.marketwatch.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:13 vse.marketwatch.com
    A broad measure of U.S. economy posted another large increase in August, the latest in a string of strong readings that point to faster growth in the months…
  7. Asia Markets: Asian markets rattled by latest North Korean nuclear threat

    Vse.marketwatch.com - Finance
    09.22 / 03:13 vse.marketwatch.com
    Equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region were down on Friday, with stocks in Japan reversing early gains following fresh threats from North Korea, while China-related stocks declined on a credit-rating…
  8. Merck abre en Shanghái el primer centro de biodesarrollo de extremo a extremo BioReliance® de China

    Prnewswire.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:55 prnewswire.com
    - Constituye el primer centro de extremo a extremo de la empresa fuera de Europa - Acelera el desarrollo clínico desde la fase molecular hasta la producción comercial DARMSTADT, Alemania, 22 de septiembre de 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Merck, una de las principales empresas ci…
  9. Merck открывает первый центр комплексных биоразработок BioReliance® в Шанхае

    Prnewswire.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:55 prnewswire.com
    - Первый комплексный центр компании за пределами Европы - Новый центр ускоряет процесс клинической разработки препаратов от молекулы до коммерческого производства ДАРМШТАДТ (DARMSTADT), Германия, 22 сентября 2017 г. /PRNewswire/ -- Ведущая научно-технологическая компания Merck сегодня с…
  10. Merck eröffnet Chinas erstes BioReliance® Biodevelopment Center in Shanghai

    Prnewswire.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:55 prnewswire.com
     - Erstes Zentrum für Komplettlösungen von Merck außerhalb Europas  - Beschleunigte klinische Entwicklung vom Molekül zur kommerziellen Herstellung DARMSTADT, Deutschland, 22. September 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Merck, ein führendes Wissenschafts- und Technologieunternehmen, hat he…
  11. CXO-Cockpit and OneStream Software Introduce an Integrated Financial Reporting Solution to the XF MarketPlace

    Prnewswire.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:55 prnewswire.com
    ATLANTA, Sept. 21, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- CXO-Cockpit and Corporate Performance Management solutions provider, OneStream Software, announced that they have teamed up to provide the growing OneStream community with a reporting solution that meets the OneStream standards with rich financial …
  12. Moody's upgrades perspective to stable and confirms Ecopetrol S.A.'s investment-grade rating

    Prnewswire.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:55 prnewswire.com
    BOGOTÁ, Colombia, Sept. 21, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC) announces that the rating agency Moody's has upgraded the company's perspective to stable and retained its rating at Baa3. The upgrade in perspective was due to the company's solid strategy for a…
  13. New Website IDs Corporations Profiting From the Abuse of Communities of Color

    Colorlines.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:50 colorlines.com
    Sameer Rao/NOWPoliticsEconomyTags: PoliticsEconomyTrump PresidencyBackersofHate.orgA coalition of advocacy groups is making it easier to know which major corporations stand to profit from the Trump Administration’s multifaceted attacks on communities of color.  BackersOfHate.org launched on April 27 and highlights nine companies—JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Boeing, Disney, IMB, BlackRock, Uber and The Blackstone Group—with ties to the president, his advisors and ent…
  14. PineBridge Taps Ohlson For EMEA Consultant Relations Position

    Finalternatives.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:50 finalternatives.com
    London-based multi-asset manager PineBridge Investments has named former Candriam Investors Group executive Gregory Ohlson as the company’s consultant relations manager for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. read m…
  15. Brazil Recession Means Blue Christmas For Vendors In Paraguay Border Town

    IBTimes - Finance
    09.22 / 02:35 ibtimes.com
    CIUDAD DEL ESTE, Paraguay -- A 28-year-old vendor named Ever is slouched against his rack of shrink-wrapped Adidas and Nike sneakers. Sales are abysmal, he says, standing under a tented corridor, one of many shopping venues in this sprawling border town. Other vendors sit idly at makeshift booths of T-shirts, toys, perfume bottles and smartphone accessories. At indoor kiosks and nearby department stores, statues of Santa Claus and glittering elves greet a tiny trickle of cu…
  16. The Best FinTech Stock to Buy in 2017

    Fool.com - Headlines
    09.22 / 02:35 fool.com
    This financial-technology leader should reward its investors handsomely in the years…
  17. 3 Stocks to Help Millennials Reach Their Goals

    Fool.com - Headlines
    09.22 / 02:35 fool.com
    These three stocks will help young Americans earn and learn for decades to…
  18. RLJ Lodging Trust’s (RLJ) “Hold” Rating Reiterated at Robert W. Baird

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:16 americanbankingnews.com
    RLJ Lodging Trust (NYSE:RLJ)‘s stock had its “hold” rating restated by equities research analysts at Robert W. Baird in a research report issued on Thursday. They presently have a $23.00 price target on the real estate investment trust’s stock. Robert W. Baird’s target price suggests a potential upside of 4.93% from the stock’s previous close.…
  19. Robert W. Baird Reiterates Buy Rating for Celgene Corporation (CELG)

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:16 americanbankingnews.com
    Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by analysts at Robert W. Baird in a research report issued on Thursday. They presently have a $162.00 price target on the biopharmaceutical company’s stock. Robert W. Baird’s price target indicates a potential upside of 12.31% from the company’s current price. CELG has been the topic…
  20. Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) Raised to Buy at Zacks Investment Research

    Americanbankingnews.com - Finance
    09.22 / 02:16 americanbankingnews.com
    Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) was upgraded by Zacks Investment Research from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a report released on Thursday. The brokerage presently has a $16.00 price target on the stock. Zacks Investment Research‘s target price would indicate a potential upside of 9.22% from the company’s previous close. According to Zacks,…