Need to Know: Get ready for an historic ‘fiscal shock’ as the Dow sets up for another run at 20,000

Need to Know: Get ready for an historic ‘fiscal shock’ as the Dow sets up for another run at 20,000
  1. Need to Know: Get ready for an historic ‘fiscal shock’ as the Dow sets up for another run at 20,000
    After a saucy flirtation with Dow 20,000 last week, blue chips are ready to make another go of it. Futures are in rally mode, the sun is shining (somewhere), and Donald Trump hasn’t beaten any company with his tweet stick all morning. …

The “smart money” is in la-la land when it comes to this aging bull.

That’s the conclusion any market bear would have to reach after seeing our chart of the day, which illustrates just how unattractive the prospect of hoarding cash has become for fund managers lately.

Callum Thomas, who posted the Deutsche Bank visual on his Topdown Charts blog, explains that there are a couple ways of looking at this recent trend of putting cash in play.

“When you see a chart showing the average cash holdings of U.S. mutual funds dropping towards a five-year low, it makes you think the smart money is confident in the market,” Callum Thomas, wrote in a blog post. “This may be well-placed confidence, or a sign of an increasingly bullish or even overly bullish crowd — which can be a warning sign.”

So which one is it?

This earnings season could go a long way in answering this question, at least for the short term. Some banks are set to post quarterly numbers at the week’s end, results that will likely play a big part in shaping the market’s post-20K move — assuming we finally topple that pesky level by that point.

Actually, today could well be the day. After a saucy flirtation with Dow DJIA, +0.32%  20,000 last week, blue chips might be ready to make another go of it. Futures are little changed, but the sun is shining (somewhere), and Donald Trump hasn’t beaten any company with his tweet stick all morning.

So let’s get ready to end the obsession.

Key market gauges

Futures for the Dow YMH7, -0.14%  and S&P 500 ESH7, -0.12%  aren’t doing much, after earlier showing some strength. Nasdaq-100 futures NQH7, +0.00%  are slightly higher. The Dow DJIA, +0.32%  , S&P SPX, +0.35%  and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.60%  all closed higher Friday, with the S&P and Naz setting records.

Oil CLG7, -1.65%  and the pound GBPUSD, -0.9035%  are slumping on worries about rig counts and “hard Brexit,” respectively. See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

The call

Get ready for a “fiscal shock,” the likes of which hasn’t been seen since Ronald Reagan was in the White House, warns Citigroup’s currency strategist Steven Englander in a note cited by Bloomberg.

He said if Donald Trump and Congress carry out most of their stimulus programs while the labor market gathers strength, the U.S. dollar USDEUR, +0.0737%  could “easily” push past 90 cents per euro. “We can see a huuuge, not a baby, USD move ahead,” he wrote following the release of December’s employment report.

And, of course, a “huuuge” move in the dollar would eat away at the bottom lines of the companies who depend on foreign customers to bolster business. So, yeah, just another thing to worry about in 2017.

The buzz

The granddaddy of all auto shows kicks off this week in the Motor City under a Trump cloud. Chevrolet is the first of the big brands to take the stage and show off its new products in the wee hours.

General Motors GM, -1.10% which owns the Chevy nameplate, was stung by a Trump tweet to start off the New Year as the president-elect took aim at the car maker’s production plans. Look for more news to break in the auto sector in the coming days.

Read: How Ford redirected Trump’s criticism toward rival GM

Twitter TWTR, +0.47%  dropped the hammer on “pharma bro” Martin Shkreli on Sunday, suspending his account over his harassment of a freelance reporter Lauren Duca.

McDonald’s is handing the reins of its China operations to a group led by Citic 0267, +1.24%   in a deal valuing the business at up to $2.08 billion.

The stat

$44 billion — That’s how much Jeremy Grantham’s fund has shed since a peak of $124 billion back in June 2014, according to a source cited by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

It’s been one of the firm’s roughest stretches, with its flagship mutual fund missing out on the late…

  1. Randolph man gets prison in pair of shoebox bank robberies

    WashingtonTimes - Economy
    01.20 / 11:55
    BOSTON (AP) - A Randolph man has been sentenced to nearly five years in prison after admitting he robbed two banks by handing tellers notes demanding they put cash in a shoebox. Gary Judge has also been sentenced in federal court this week to three years of supervised release and…
  2. Líderes Globais Lançam Conselho para Ajudar a Exterminar a Malária - Finance
    01.20 / 11:48
    DAVOS, Suíça, 20 de janeiro de 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Bill Gates, Copresidente da Fundação Bill & Melinda Gates, e Ray Chambers, Enviado Especial para a Saúde da Agenda 2030 e Malária nomeado pelo Secretário Geral da ONU, anunciou hoje o lançamento do Conselho de Erradicação da Malária, um gr…
  3. Des leaders mondiaux mettent en place un Conseil pour contribuer à mettre fin au paludisme - Finance
    01.20 / 11:47
    Bill Gates et Ray Chambers ont convoqué un 'Conseil pour mettre fin au paludisme' dans le but d'attirer l'attention du public, et d'attirer de nouveaux fonds pour éradiquer définitivement cette maladie. DAVOS, Suisse, 20 janvier 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Bill Gates, coprésident de la Fondation B…
  4. Trump Team Planning Huge Government Spending Cuts - Finance
    01.20 / 11:45
    Trump Team Planning Huge Government Spending Cuts Donald Trump’s Administration staff is preparing to slash US government spending by $10.5-T over 10 years, and will start Friday, January 20th after his swearing in ceremony. Plans include privatizing the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (PBS)and eliminating the National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the […] The post Trump Team Planning Huge Government Spending Cuts appeared first on Live Trading…
  5. Times when money isn’t real - Finance
    01.20 / 11:23
    Our brains don’t view all money as equal. Too often these illusions work against us. …
  6. The best ways to avoid boredom in retirement - Finance
    01.20 / 11:23
    Why do some people get bored in retirement and others don’t? Is there a secret? …
  7. Cadillac wants to eliminate the headache of car ownership - Finance
    01.20 / 11:22
    Cadillac is diving into the world of premium subscription services with Book – a program that removes some of the minutiae of owning a car. …
  8. Europe is falling apart. Saving it won't be easy

    CNNMoney - Economy
    01.20 / 11:17
    Politicians and business leaders worry that the European Union is in mortal…
  9. Kickstarter Launches for "Hair to the Throne" - Finance
    01.20 / 10:34
    SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 20, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Day Dreamers Limited, an artistic collective, in partnership with San Francisco creative studio Form & Fiction, are proud to launch a Kickstarter campaign for their new animated series Hair to the Throne. The playfully satirical episodic series…
  10. Centaur Media Plc (CAU) Insider Acquires £148.42 in Stock - Finance
    01.20 / 10:09
    Centaur Media Plc (LON:CAU) insider Andria Vidler purchased 362 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, January 19th. The stock was bought at an average price of GBX 41 ($0.49) per share, for a total transaction of £148.42 ($179.06). Andria Vidler also recently made the following trade(s): On Monday, December …
  11. Insider Buying: GLI Finance Ltd (GLIF) Insider Purchases 144,057 Shares of Stock - Finance
    01.20 / 09:33
    GLI Finance Ltd (LON:GLIF) insider Emma Stubbs acquired 144,057 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Friday, December 9th. The stock was bought at an average cost of GBX 21 ($0.25) per share, for a total transaction of £30,251.97 ($36,496.53). GLI Finance Ltd (LON:GLIF) opened at 24.80 on Friday. The stock’s market capitalization …
  12. London Markets: FTSE 100 slips as wait-and-see mode sets in before Trump takes office - Finance
    01.20 / 09:32
    U.K. stocks are on course to break a string of weekly wins Friday, with investors set to watch what Donald Trump may say about his plans for the U.S. economy when he’s sworn in as the country’s 45th president. …
  13. Jefferies International announced Royal Mail Plc (LON:RMG), reducing its stock price target to 360.00GBX today - Finance
    01.20 / 09:19
    In a statement issued on 1/20/2017 Jefferies International dropped the price target of Royal Mail Plc (LON:RMG) from 390.00GBX to 360.00GBX stating a potential downside of -0.16%. On Thursday January… The post Jefferies International announced Royal Mail Plc (LON:RMG), reducing its stock price target to 360.00GBX today appeared first on…
  14. Darrell Delamaide's Political Capital: Theresa May’s clean break with Europe rejects the stale past - Finance
    01.20 / 08:55
    Theresa May’s rejection of the stale ideology of a united Europe means Britain can embark on its own optimistic path, writes Darrell Delamaide. …
  15. Filo Mining Provides Update on 2016/2017 Exploration Program - Finance
    01.20 / 07:47
    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Jan. 20, 2017) – Filo Mining Corporation (TSX VENTURE:FIL)(NASDAQ OMX:FIL) (“Filo Mining” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that the 2016/2017 drill program at the Filo del Sol project is now underway. Two reverse circulation (RC) drills are currently active and a third rig is expected to be added in…
  16. HTC VIVE lanza el programa "VR For Impact" de 10 millones de dólares en el Foro Económico Mundial 2017 - Finance
    01.20 / 07:30
    El programa de 10 millones de dólares se dedicó a mostrar cómo la realidad virtual puede conducir a un impacto positivo en apoyo de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible de Naciones Unidas. DAVOS, Suiza, 20 de enero de 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- HTC VIVE™, el líder en realidad virtual (RV) a es…
  17. HTC VIVE lance le programme « VR For Impact » de 10 millions de dollars au Forum économique mondial 2017 - Finance
    01.20 / 07:29
    Le programme de 10 millions de dollars dédié à montrer à quel point la réalité virtuelle peut conduire à des effets positifs à l'appui des Objectifs de développement durable de l'ONU DAVOS, Suisse, 20 janvier 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- HTC VIVE™, le chef de file dans la réalité virtuelle (RV) à…
  18. eShippers Announces Change of Directors - Finance
    01.20 / 07:27
    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Jan 19, 2017) - eShippers Management Ltd. ("eShippers" or the "Company") (NEX:EPX.H) announces that Mr. Michael Curtis has resigned as a director of the Company to focus on his other business interests. The board of directors expects to appoint a new director in the near future to fill the vacancy. The Company wishes to thank Mr. Curtis for his years of service and wishes him the best in his future endeavors. The board of directors of…
  19. Hercules Capital Prices $200.0 Million of Convertible Senior Notes Upsized from $150.0 Million - Finance
    01.20 / 07:26
    Hercules Capital, Inc. (NYSE:HTGC) (“Hercules” or the “Company”), today announced that it has agreed to sell to the initial purchaser in a private offering, $200.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.375% Convertible Senior Notes due 2022 (the “Convertible Senior Notes”). The offering was upsized to $200.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Convertible Senior Notes from the previously announced offering size of $150.0 million a…
  20. Hollywood’s ‘The Founder’ stands out in a week with few options - Finance
    01.20 / 07:26
    Horror thriller ‘The Bye Bye Man’, directed by Stacy Title, is the other notable Hollywood release this wee…